GMAO Chemical Forecasts and GEOS–CHEM
NRT Simulations for
ICARTT

Last Updated July 02, 2004. Operational forecasts are now available.

Harvard University - Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group:
Solène Turquety (stu@fas.harvard.edu),Carine Saüt (csaut@fas.harvard.edu),Bob Yantosca (bmy@sol.harvard.edu), Rynda Hudman (hudman@fas.harvard.edu) and Daniel Jacob (djacob@fas.harvard.edu)

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center - Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO): Steven Pawson (spawson@gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov) and Eric Nielsen (nielsen@gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov)

University of Washington - Department of Atmospheric Sciences: Lyatt Jaeglé (jaegle@atmos.washington.edu)

Data Products | About the Forecasts | About the NRT runs | Time Zones

GMAO/GEOS-CHEM Forecast Products : Interactive Web Interface

Forecast browser:
Near real time assimilation browser:
-------------->>
Quick-look plots
Comparisons between forecasts and observations

NOTE: You may encounter problems with INTERNET EXPLORER using this site. We recommend that you use either NETSCAPE or MOZILLA.

Please report any bugs/comments to Lyatt Jaeglé (jaegle@atmos.washington.edu).

QUICKSTART GUIDE
GMAO chemical forecast browser: Choose a date on the dropdown menu in the table above and then click on "Start forecast browser". The dates are indicated in GMT time. There are two forecasts each day: a 00 GMT forecast and a 12 GMT forecast. The forecast browser will allow you to view the forecast you selected. Simply press the "PLOT" button to see maps of the various tracers calculated with the GMAO chemical transport forecasts (tagged CO, tagged ozone, CO2, CH4, and SO4). You can then adjust the day, hour, tracer, latitude, longitude, altitude and plot the results again. You also have the options of generating an animation or a postscript file. The curtain display option together with the 'Zonal Average' or 'Meridional Average' plot type allows you to enter (latitude, longitude, altitude) along a proposed flighttrack and then sample it along that flight track.

GEOS-CHEM Near-real-time simulation browser:Here you can view output from the daily near-real-time simulations which are generated with the GEOS-CHEM model. You can choose to plot timeseries data (CO, NOx,O3, HNO3, PAN, acetone, sulfate, dust, sea-salt), columns (CO, NO2, HCHO, O3), or chemical quantities (OH, NO2, NO). You have the same ploting options as for the GMAO forecast browser.

Quick look plots: Here you can view quick comparisons between observed data and NRT/forecasts archived by GEOS-CHEM along the actual research aircraft flight tracks.


ABOUT THE GMAO FORECASTS

Twice-daily, 5-day chemical tracer forecasts are produced each day using the GEOS–4 GCM initialized with assimilated meteorological data. These chemical forecasts are generated at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) in parallel to the operational GEOS–4 meteorological forecasts. The resolution is 1.25° degrees longitude by 1° latitude by 55 vertical levels. The GEOS–4 GCM is run in 2 modes:

  1. An ongoing simulation constrained by GEOS–4 meteorological analyses and
  2. Five-day forecasts, initialized twice each day (00 and 12 GMT), starting from the state produced by run 1.

Each forecast cycle (00 GMT and 12 GMT) includes the following chemical tracers:

Puff releases of additional CO tracers will also be done over the course of the INTEX-NA mission in order to support Lagrangian studies of trans-Atlantic transport in collaboration with the ICARTT initiative.

All tracers use a linear formulation of sources and sinks to allow expedient computation within the GEOS–4 GCM. The linearization uses archived monthly 3-D fields of OH concentrations, ozone and sulfate production rates, and ozone loss frequencies from a GEOS–CHEM simulation for the year 2001. Sources of CO and CO2 will be taken from the GEOS–CHEM model. Anthropogenic emissions will be from a gridded 0.25° x 0.25° version of the EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) for 1999. The biomass burning emissions used for the CO forecasts are updated daily using North American fires detected by MODIS ( http://gp16.ssd.nesdis.noaa.gov/FIRE/fire.html). Sulfate aerosol will be removed by wet deposition as determined from the GEOS–4 hydrological cycle.

Personnel at GMAO responsible for generating chemical forecasts:

  • Steven Pawson
  • Eric Nielsen
  • GMAO Operations Group

Reference: Chemical forecasting and near-real-time CTM analysis in support of INTEX–NA, D. J. Jacob, 2004.


ABOUT THE GEOS-CHEM Near-Real-Time (NRT) SIMULATIONS

In addition to the 5-day look-ahead chemical forecasts described above, we are also producing daily detailed ozone–aerosol–CO–CO2–methane simulations with the GEOS–CHEM model in support of ICARTT. These GEOS–CHEM simulations are being generated at Harvard University using the GEOS–4 first-look assimilated data product at 2° latitude by 2.5° longitude horizontal resolution and 55 vertical levels. The simulations will lag the observations by only 2-3 days, and hence have been dubbed "near-real-time", or NRT for short.

The GEOS–CHEM NRT simulations serve 3 purposes:

  1. To monitor over the course of ICARTT any large deviations between the aircraft observations and our understanding of ozone and aerosol processes that may cause alteration of flight plans,

  2. To provide vertical shape information for NO2 and HCHO concentrations to support near-real-time retrievals of SCIAMACHY column data for these two gases (by Dalhousie University), and

  3. To generate a set of preliminary findings by the end of ICARTT.

The NRT simulations include our most detailed GEOS–CHEM representation of coupled nonlinear ozone–NOx–VOC–aerosol chemistry [Park et al 2004], CO2 [Suntharalingam, 2004], and methane [Xiao et al 2004]. Anthropogenic emissions in the United States will be from the EPA NEI 1999 inventory. Fires in North American and Northern Asia will be included in the simulation on the basis of MODIS satellite observations.

Output from the NRT simulations are posted to this website (maintained by Lyatt Jaeglé at the University of Washington) and consists of 3 different kinds of quantities:

  • 3-D timeseries data
    • CO, Ozone, NOx, PAN, PMN, HNO3, ACET sulfate, aerosol optical depths, black carbon, dust

  • 2-D timeseries data
    • Tropospheric columns of O3, NO2, HCHO
    • Total CO columns

  • GEOS–CHEM data saved along flight tracks
    • all GEOS–CHEM chemical tracers
    • absolute humidity
    • temperature
    • wind speed
    • Chemically produced quantities: NO, OH, HO2
    • JNO2, JO1D
    • Aerosol optical depths

Personnel at Harvard responsible for generating NRT simulations:

  • Bob Yantosca
  • Solène Turquety
  • Carine Saüt
  • Rynda Hudman
  • Daniel Jacob

Reference: Chemical forecasting and near-real-time CTM analysis in support of INTEX–NA, D. J. Jacob, 2004.


TIME ZONES

During the ICARTT initiative (of which INTEX–NA is part), coordination will be required between several different time zones.  Several American and European research aircraft will be flying out of the following bases:

  • NASA DC–8: based at from St. Louis, MO and Portsmouth, NH (as part of INTEX–NA)
  • NOAA WP–3B: based at from Portsmouth, NH (as part of ITCT–2K4)
  • Europe: DLR Falcon

Because of flight planning deadlines, time management must be done precisely.  For the current time in each of the mission's time zones, see the clocks below:
GMT
Seattle
St Louis
Boston
Azores
London
Paris